Not a prediction. A probability-adjusted profile. Every hitter on every slate gets scored across five independent axes: pitcher vulnerability, batted-ball shape, contact quality, park conditions, and leverage — to surface the edges that matter. We don't tell you who will homer. We show you whose shape fits the matchup the best.
HR/FB rate, fly-ball tendencies, pulled-air contact allowed, handedness splits, hard-hit rates. Does this pitcher hand out the kind of contact that carries?
Pull %, fly-ball rate, launch angle, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, pull-side power. Does this hitter's batted-ball profile match the pitcher's weaknesses?
Last 3-5 games: hard-hit balls, barrels, warning-track contact, EV trends. 0-for-4 with two 380ft fly balls still scores well. Process over results.
Wind direction, temperature, humidity, park factors, handedness-friendly conditions. Environment shifts the ceiling — we account for it.
Public sentiment, over-owned chalk plays, hidden angles. The best shape means nothing if everyone else already owns it. We find the edges the market misses.
Why: Shane McClanahan allows 1.1 HR/9 and 9.8% barrel rate. Hot recent contact — multiple hard-hit balls in last 7 days.
Composite 7.5+. Multiple axes firing. Use as primary exposure.
Composite 6.5-7.4. One axis dragging but compensated by others.
Composite 5.5-6.4. Leverage angle makes up for weaker profiles. GPP plays.
The public overrates slugger names and box scores. A hitter going 3-for-4 last night is over-owned today even if all three hits were ground balls to the left side. Bombsight ignores the narrative and scores the shape.
Cumulative stats across the full picks archive — how the model performs across tiers.
Aggregate return on approved picks across the season.
Flat 1u stake per resolved pick. Assumed decimal payouts: Elite 2.20, Strong 2.80, Sneaky 3.40.
Closing Line Value — our model's implied probability at publish vs. the closing market line. Sustained positive means we're beating the market.
Bucketed win rates across resolved games — what the model is actually learning.
Actual hit rate per confidence tier versus expected — how well does each band predict wins?
Pick-driven hit rate and net units per league × tier cell — where does Elite actually beat Strong, sport-by-sport?
One card per pick. Scored across all 5 axes. The Edge is what separates this pick from the noise.
No picks scored yet. Check back before first pitch.
Top pitcher vulnerabilities and batter targets from the latest pre-game research.
Browse historical picks and see how the model performs over time.
Shane McClanahan allows 1.1 HR/9 and 9.8% barrel rate. Hot recent contact — multiple hard-hit balls in last 7 days.
Andrew Painter allows 0.9 HR/9 and 8.6% barrel rate. Low ownership at 6% — GPP leverage play.
Tyler Phillips allows 1.1 HR/9 and 6.4% barrel rate. Low ownership at 6% — GPP leverage play.
Hot recent contact — multiple hard-hit balls in last 7 days. Low ownership at 7% — GPP leverage play.
Low ownership at 5% — GPP leverage play.
Michael Lorenzen allows 1.4 HR/9 and 7.4% barrel rate. Carson Kelly has a 92 EV ceiling with 38% pull rate. Hot recent contact — multiple hard-hit balls in last 7 days. Low ownership at 5% — GPP leverage play.
Eric Lauer allows 1.4 HR/9 and 7.8% barrel rate. Low ownership at 7% — GPP leverage play.
Mackenzie Gore allows 1.5 HR/9 and 8.1% barrel rate. Josh Bell has a 92 EV ceiling with 40% pull rate.
Paste player names and opposing pitchers. Score them directly without waiting for the daily cron.
Format: Aranda vs Eric Lauer — one matchup per line or comma.
Every output ends with a post-game review — evaluating whether the reasoning was correct even when the result wasn't. This is how trust is built. A +EV call that goes 0-for-5 was still the right call. We show our work.
High-quality at-bats the model got right where variance punished us — barrelled contact (≥ 95 mph exit velocity) that didn't leave the yard. The reasoning was still correct.
Awaiting post-game Statcast data — hard-contact no-HR tickets surface here.
"The sports-betting internet is flooded with charlatans selling confidence. Every day, someone posts a 'lock' on a +150 home run and then quietly deletes the losing tweet. This is not that."
Bombsight is built for sharp bettors and DFS grinders who understand that process generates results over time. We score shapes. We find edges. We show our work. And when we're wrong — which happens — we tell you why the reasoning was still correct.
No locks. No guarantees. Just data-driven probability edges, updated daily across every MLB slate.