Bombsight scores every hitter across five axes — pitcher vulnerability, batted-ball shape, contact quality, park conditions, and leverage — to surface the edges that matter.
Not a prediction. A probability-adjusted profile. Every hitter on every slate gets scored across five independent axes — then ranked by composite signal strength. We don't tell you who will homer. We tell you whose shape fits the slate best.
HR/FB rate, fly-ball tendencies, pulled-air contact allowed, handedness splits, hard-hit rates. Does this pitcher hand out the kind of contact that carries?
Pull %, fly-ball rate, launch angle, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, pull-side power. Does this hitter's batted-ball profile match the pitcher's weaknesses?
Last 3-5 games: hard-hit balls, barrels, warning-track contact, EV trends. 0-for-4 with two 380ft fly balls still scores well. Process over results.
Wind direction, temperature, humidity, park factors, handedness-friendly conditions. Environment shifts the ceiling — we account for it.
Public sentiment, over-owned chalk plays, hidden angles. The best shape means nothing if everyone else already owns it. We find the edges the market misses.
Why: Wind blowing out at 14mph amplifies HR equity. Low ownership at 7% — GPP leverage play.
Composite 7.5+. Multiple axes firing. Use as primary exposure.
Composite 6.5-7.4. One axis dragging but compensated by others.
Composite 5.5-6.4. Leverage angle makes up for weaker profiles. GPP plays.
The public overrates slugger names and box scores. A hitter going 3-for-4 last night is over-owned today even if all three hits were ground balls to the left side. Bombsight ignores the narrative and scores the shape.
Browse historical picks and see how the model performs over time.
Wind blowing out at 14mph amplifies HR equity. Low ownership at 7% — GPP leverage play.
Jamie Otero is tough — limiting hard contact and barrel damage.
Darius Grant has a 93 EV ceiling with 38% pull rate. Hot recent contact — multiple hard-hit balls in last 7 days. Low ownership at 4% — GPP leverage play.
Felix Duran is tough — limiting hard contact and barrel damage.
Low ownership at 6% — GPP leverage play.
Quinn Ortiz is tough — limiting hard contact and barrel damage. Jace Mills has a 95 EV ceiling with 40% pull rate. Low ownership at 5% — GPP leverage play.
Sam Torres allows 1.5 HR/9 and 6.5% barrel rate. Eli Vance has a 92 EV ceiling with 35% pull rate. Elevation boost: Coors effect adds carry to all fly balls. Low ownership at 3% — GPP leverage play.
Every output ends with a post-game review — evaluating whether the reasoning was correct even when the result wasn't. This is how trust is built. A +EV call that goes 0-for-5 was still the right call. We show our work.
Reasoning held? Yes. Raleigh's shape was strong — 43% pull rate against a RH pitcher allowing 19% HR/FB to righties. Two barrels in his last start. The environmental score was neutral. The pick was correct by process; the result missed.
What we learned: SEA bullpen used 4 arms the prior two nights — Muller's exit was forced early, but the lineup faced a fresh setup crew. Shape against the starting pitcher doesn't account for bullpen game flow. Future iterations should weight late-inning matchup exposure.
"The sports-betting internet is flooded with charlatans selling confidence. Every day, someone posts a 'lock' on a +150 home run and then quietly deletes the losing tweet. This is not that."
Bombsight is built for sharp bettors and DFS grinders who understand that process generates results over time. We score shapes. We find edges. We show our work. And when we're wrong — which happens — we tell you why the reasoning was still correct.
No locks. No guarantees. Just data-driven probability edges, updated daily across every MLB slate.